Title page for ETD etd-04082009-041415

Type of Document Master's Thesis
Author Huang, Huilin
URN etd-04082009-041415
Title Modelling structural change in the U.S. demand for meat
Degree Master of Science
Department Agricultural Economics
Advisory Committee
Advisor Name Title
Alwang, Jeffrey R. Committee Co-Chair
McGuirk, Anya M. Committee Co-Chair
Driscoll, Paul J. Committee Member
  • Consumption (Economics)
Date of Defense 1991-11-05
Availability restricted
Recent empirical research on meat demand has debated whether or not the effects of changing meat prices can explain all the observed changes in meat consumption patterns. This thesis provides a framework for modelling and testing for structural change using three commonly used demand system -- a linear demand system, an inverse demand system, and the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). Emphasis is placed on the statistical adequacy of the models. Two specific issues are carefully addressed: consumer concern for cholesterol and its effect on meat demand, and the dynamics of adjustment in meat consumption.

When modelling the demand for beef, pork, chicken and turkey, none of the three demand systems are found to be statistically adequate, and consequently, cannot be used to address structural change issues for these particular data and commodities. The AIDS models are re-estimated in an attempt to model the demand for beef, pork, chicken and fish instead of turkey. The dynamic versions of the AIDS models using either a gradual shift spline path, a Farley-Hinich path, a variable measuring cholesterol awareness, or the log of the cholesterol awareness variable are all statistically adequate. Likelihood ratio tests on these models indicate that structural change has occurred. The significance of the cholesterol variable in the demand models indicates that health concern is an important factor in meat purchasing decisions.

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