Title page for ETD etd-06102012-040446

Type of Document Master's Thesis
Author Criniti, James Ralph
URN etd-06102012-040446
Title A probabilistic model for estimating demand for selected existing rural community hospitals that may be facing closure in West Virginia
Degree Master of Science
Department Health and Physical Education
Advisory Committee
Advisor Name Title
Redican, Kerry J. Committee Chair
Baffi, Charles R. Committee Member
Bohland, James R. Committee Member
  • Health planning
Date of Defense 1989-12-15
Availability restricted
A wide range of people are interested in how local

factors influence patient choice among hospitals.

Administrators need to know why patients are admitted to their

hospitals so they can develop more sophisticated marketing of

their services in an increasingly competitive environment.

Planners concerned with issues of patient accessibility need

know the geographic patterns of hospital use To meet

these needs, it becomes necessary to develop methods to

estimate the probability that patients will be admitted to a

particular hospital using models that incorporate location and

size of competing hospitals.

In this paper, the focus of econometric investigation

and prediction is the probability that a patient will select

e particular hospital. Four different service areas were

delineated and studied in West Virginia to test the Huff

Consumer Spatial Behavior model for estimating demand at four

hospitals that may be facing closure. It was found that

through application of the Huff model that in a small system

of hospitals and patients, each patient location (i.e., zip

code) will send patients to nearly every hospital. The model predicted sufficient demand for two of the four hospitals

studied. Conventional methodologies were then compared to the

Huff model. The model did not test for financial feasibility

of any of the facilities nor did the model adequately address

the issue of how patients select a particular facility.

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