Title page for ETD etd-07252002-164244

Type of Document Master's Thesis
Author Ashley, David W.
Author's Email Address David.Ashley@ingdirect.com
URN etd-07252002-164244
Title The Demand for Consumer Credit
Degree Master of Arts
Department Economics
Advisory Committee
Advisor Name Title
Waud, Roger N. Committee Chair
Lutton, Thomas J. Committee Member
Theroux, Richard Committee Member
  • structural equations
  • reduced form
  • consumer credit
Date of Defense 2002-07-18
Availability unrestricted
The demand for consumer credit is an area of economics that is of great interest to those in the lending community. While much research has been performed on this topic in the financial industry, the findings have been very closely guarded for competitive reasons. In this study, reduced form equations were derived to form the basis of a 2SLS regression model. This model was used to estimate the demand for consumer credit in the United States over the period 1973 - 2002. Six independent variables were included in the analysis: monetary base, unemployment rate, consumer confidence index, disposable personal income, federal funds interest rate and the price/barrel of oil.

The model results concluded that only two of these variables significantly affect the demand for consumer credit – disposable personal income (DPIt) and the unemployment rate (uet). The error terms were compared against those derived from two alternative models using the same data sets – a trend model and an autoregressive model – AR(1). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the reduced form model was significantly lower then that of the trend model, but slightly higher then the AR(1) model. The objectives of this study are to: (1) produce an accurate model that defines the drivers behind the demand for consumer credit, while (2) producing results consistent with econometric theory. Based on this set of objectives, the reduced form model is the superior of the three models included in this study.

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