Type of Document Master's Thesis Author Smith, Michael D. URN etd-154317559631561 Title Estimation of Future Manufacturing Costs for Nanoelectronics Technology Degree Master of Engineering Department Industrial and Systems Engineering Advisory Committee
Advisor Name Title Ioannou, George Shewchuk, John P. Sullivan, William G. Committee Chair Keywords
Date of Defense 1996-05-18 Availability unrestricted AbstractIn this report, a future scenario concerning the economic
direction of the computing industry has been presented. This future
scenario was based on past developments within the computing industry.
The continued miniaturization of semiconductor components was discussed
based on observed trends for transistors. The physical limitations for
transistor devices were also addressed. The use of x-ray lithography for
the construction of devices on a 3nano-scale2 was considered. Next, cost
trends within the microelectronics industry were explored. Although the
cost per transistor has been observed to decrease, total equipment costs
and facilities costs were observed to rise.
Trend extrapolation was next used to predict the future cost per
transistor and the number of transistors per chip. By taking the product
of these two predicted quantities, an equation for the future manufacturing
cost per chip was determined. A parametric cost estimation model (VHSIC
Model) for the prediction of avionics computer system costs was modified
to reflect the future performance parameters of nanoelectronics. Using
data from the x86 design of Intel Microprocessor Chips, undetermined
parameters of the Modified VHSIC Model were calculated. Next, future
performance parameters were used in the model to predict the initial
selling price of future chips. The resulting predictions from this model
indicated that chip prices are expected to increase while the price per
electronic function will decrease. Finally, profit-time models for
semiconductor chips and transistors were derived. These models were used
to predict the future profit for a chip or transistor.
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